STRATFOR Analysis

Lebanon: An Assassination and Rising Tensions

Summary

Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel was killed Nov. 21 in a Beirut neighborhood where a pro-Syrian party is known to have a large presence. As Gemayel was an outspoken critic of Hezbollah and a member of Lebanon's anti-Syrian movement, Syrian intelligence likely staged the shooting as part of an intimidation strategy to keep the lid on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Hezbollah will use the momentum generated by the Gemayel assassination to further its plans to plunge Lebanon into a constitutional crisis.

Analysis

Lebanese Industry Minister Pierre Gemayel was shot dead Nov. 21 by gunmen as his convoy passed through Beirut's Greek Orthodox Sin el-Fil neighborhood, where the pro-Damascus Syrian Social Nationalist Party has a large presence. Gemayel was staunchly opposed to Hezbollah and was a leader of the March 14 alliance, the anti-Syrian coalition that holds a majority in the Lebanese parliament and has been outspoken about Syria's alleged involvement in the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri. Gemayel is the first anti-Syrian politician to be killed since Gebran Tueni, who was assassinated in a car bombing in December 2005.

There is little doubt that Syria's widespread intelligence and security apparatus organized Gemayel's assassination. The Lebanese government was poised to approve legislation for the formation of an international tribunal to try suspects in the al-Hariri assassination, which has made the Syrian regime and its allies in Lebanon nervous, to say the least. To thwart the tribunal formation and ensure that the government remains in gridlock, five of Lebanon's Shiite Cabinet ministers belonging to Hezbollah and the Amal Movement resigned Nov. 11. Pro-Syrian Lebanese President Emile Lahoud also has refused to sign any decree on the tribunal.

Following the summer conflict with Israel, radical Shiite Islamist group Hezbollah has seized the opportunity to fortify its political position in Lebanon by forcing an expansion of the Lebanese Cabinet that would give Shiite parliament members veto power to counter the anti-Syrian March 14 coalition. To achieve this, Hezbollah has escalated sectarian tensions in the country and organized massive demonstrations in Beirut in an effort to prove it can control the decisions of the Lebanese government with or without majority political representation.

Now that Gemayel has been eliminated from the Cabinet, only one more Cabinet position needs to fall in order for the government to lose its constitutionality. Gemayel's assassination is part of a strategy to bring down the Lebanese government and force new elections that could favor Hezbollah and its Shiite allies.

The United Nations' final document on the al-Hariri tribunal is still awaiting submission to the Lebanese parliament for approval. Hezbollah plans to orchestrate the resignations of Shiite parliamentary deputies and Maronite parliament members from the bloc of former Lebanese Prime Minster Gen. Michel Aoun before the vote is cast. Shiite parliament speaker Nabih Berri also could resign to prevent the tribunal deliberations from proceeding. In Hezbollah's mind, the formation of a constitutional crisis is in full swing.

The Syrian government shares Hezbollah's confidence; it has been empowered now that Washington and Baghdad are moving toward a new strategy to contain violence in Iraq that could involve pulling Syria out of diplomatic isolation. The Syrians feel that their position is stronger now that they have officially resumed diplomatic relations with Iraq and have Iran as their protector in the region. Moreover, the Syrian government apparently believes it can afford to use its intelligence agents to carry out assassinations without facing any major threat. The summer conflict left Israel politically paralyzed, and the country does not have the stomach to deal with the tornado that would follow any attempts bring down the Syrian regime or re-engage Hezbollah's military forces. At the same time, the United States is desperately searching for an exit strategy for Iraq, and Syria's role in controlling insurgent traffic across its border will be key in bringing the security situation under control. The confidence exhibited by the Syrian regime, however, does not guarantee Damascus a place at the negotiating table. Washington is already struggling to deal with Iran's rising influence in the region and will be reluctant to forge any agreements with Iran's partners in Syria or Lebanon that would facilitate Hezbollah's political ambitions.

Though Syria will vehemently deny any role in the Gemayel killing and will join the March 14 forces in condemning the act, the fingerprints of Syrian President Bashar al Assad's regime are all over this latest assassination. Massive demonstrations will take place, with Hezbollah, Amal and their allies in Aoun's Maronite Christian movement on one side and the anti-Syrian March 14 alliance on the other. As communal tensions in the country heat up, the stirrings of another Lebanese civil war will become increasingly apparent.

The Lebanese army already has deployed four brigades to greater Beirut to assume combat readiness in case Hezbollah forces attack Sunnis in West Beirut. Lebanon's Sunni bloc, led by the al-Hariri clan and their regional Arab allies, also has sent a number of fighters to Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt to receive military training in order to counter Hezbollah's well-equipped and well-trained military forces. In the meantime, Syria continues to send reinforcements to its allies in Lebanon. Syrian army officers who previously served in Lebanon have infiltrated the country and are leading combat units of their allies in Hezbollah, pro-Syrian groups and the Syrian Social Nationalist Party. Furthermore, about 2,500 Syrian troops masquerading as laborers have joined the ranks of the anti-government forces in Lebanon.

Though Hezbollah is unlikely to engage in a military confrontation at this time in order to preserve its legitimacy as a resistance movement acting in the interests of the Lebanese people, an outbreak of hostilities between Lebanon's rival factions is a real possibility.